The growth potential of wind and photovoltaic power generation

How will solar PV & wind impact global electricity generation?

The share of solar PV and wind in global electricity generation is forecast to double to 25% in 2028 in our main case. This rapid expansion in the next five years will have implications for power systems worldwide.

What is the power-use efficiency of PV and wind power plants?

By considering the flexible power load with UHV and energy storage, the power-use efficiency for PV and wind power plants is estimated when the electrification rate in 2060 increases from 0 to 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% (a) and the power generation by other renewables in 2060 increases from 0 to 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 PWh year −1 (b).

What is the maximum growth rate of wind and solar power?

In contrast, in the largest electricity systems (>1,000 TWh yr –1, for example, the European Union, China, India and the United States), the maximum growth rates of wind and solar power did not exceed 1% for wind (European Union) and 1.1% for solar (Japan) (Supplementary Fig. 5).

How are PV and wind power plants estimated?

The installed capacity (a) and costs (b) of PV and wind power plants built during 2020–2060 are estimated in our model by optimizing the construction time of individual power plants at a temporal interval of 5 years (bars) or 10 years (stars).

What is the capacity of PV & wind power plants in 2021–2060?

In a baseline scenario, the capacity of individual PV and wind power plants is limited to 10 GW without electricity transmission and energy storage, whereas the growth rate of PV and wind power is constant during 2021–2060 without considering the dynamics of learning.

What is the growth rate of PV & wind power in China?

A transition to 2.8 PWh year −1 in 2060 (Fig.3a). The share of PV and wind in power 1% for China in the 2010s 40. Although the projected annual gro wth rates lenges in China because of her larger absolute pow er demand. renewables in China 7,27–29. For example, the growth of PV and wind power (Fig. 3c).