Analysis of the original sin of photovoltaic panel price reduction

What factors influence cost reductions in solar photovoltaics?

Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics U.S. energy research and development: Declining investment, increasing need, and the feasibility of expansion Pillai, U., Cruz, K., 2013. Source of Cost Reduction in Solar Photovoltaics.

What causes photovoltaics cost decline?

We model technology improvement to identify causes of photovoltaics (PV) cost decline. Improvements to module efficiency and materials costs were important. Since 2001, increasing plant size enabled economies of scale to reduce costs. Market-stimulating policies were responsible for a large share of PV's cost decline.

How can R&D help reduce PV module cost?

R&D, both public and private, was a key driver of module cost reduction historically and can be valuable going forward in improving module efficiency and reducing materials use. Improvements to module efficiency in particular would help cut the per-watt cost of all cost components of PV modules (as well as PV systems).

How do market-stimulating policies affect the cost of PV modules?

Market-stimulating policies have played a central role in driving down the costs of PV modules, with private R&D, economies of scale, and learning-by-doing together contributing an estimated 60% of the cost decline in PV modules between 1980 and 2012.

How can we reduce PV's cost?

Policies that stimulate market growth have played a key role in enabling PV's cost reduction, through privately-funded R&D and scale economies, and to a lesser extent learning-by-doing. The method presented here can be adapted to retrospectively or prospectively study many technologies, and performance metrics besides cost.

How much will solar PV modules cost in 2021?

For comparison, the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021 Annual Technology Baseline report predicts that solar PV modules will reach US$170 per kW, US$190 per kW and US$320 per kW by 2030 in advanced, moderate and conservative improvement scenarios, respectively 19.